The Contract Dwayne Bowe Deserves

The Chiefs blogosphere, and perhaps the Chiefs fanbase as a whole, needs a reality check. It is entirely possible that once a legitimately great talent is on your team for five years, you begin to take it for granted. It is entirely possible that all of us are just fans on a base level, and thus will always root for players to sign at the cheapest pricetag conceivable. And it is entirely possible that many of us simply don’t factor in all the necessary conditions to decide what contracts should be issued to whom.
But whatever the reason, the Chiefs blogosphere has been drastically lowballing franchise-tagged WR Dwayne Bowe. And I think many writers whom I respect are undervaluing Bowe’s talent — and I’m not sure why. It might be a legitimate fear of being bold: the Chiefs do not often hand out monster contracts, and recently have even been able to ink elite players like OLB Tamba Hali for nickels on the dollar. But Bowe’s agent is very, very tough, and Bowe’s talent is very, very great. And it’s time to get over whatever hestitations we have about signing over a massive contract, because Bowe deserves one here. We are on the brink of handing over the bank, folks.

This event horizon of money can mess with your head. Two of my favorite writers, Arrowhead Pride‘s Joel Thorman and AA’s very own Patrick Allen, might be suffering from that. Roughly a week ago, Thorman wrote the Chiefs should bypass a longterm deal for Bowe altogether, and should franchise him for two consecutive years, and release him into free agency. Not only is this Football Heresy, as Bowe has performed too well for too long to release into the waters of free agency, but it all but guarantees the Chiefs lose Branden Albert in free agency in 2013. (There is next-to-no chance Albert gets extended during the year — critical foundation players usually force the franchise tag, like Hali and Bowe have).
Then our very own Paddy suggests that Bowe should be signed for less than his talents warrant because he has issues, presumably of the character variety. Except that since his first twelve months with the team where he transitioned towards maturity, there have been virtually zero issues there. His transition to Haley’s offense was trying, but he rose to the challenge and, like ILB Derrick Johnson (who later received a payday), Bowe took to it like a fish to water, and has flirted with All Pro status ever since. Let’s not forget that Bowe has had the following quarterbacks pitching him the ball: Damon Huard, Brodie Croyle, Tyler Thigpen, Matt Cassel, Tyler Palko, and Kyle Orton. That is not exactly a Who’s Who of elite quarterbacking. But Bowe has never complained. Instead, he’s often vocally supported his QB, and put up consistently strong-to-elite numbers no matter who’s been under center.
I was hoping this trend set by my friends Joel and Paddy was not being followed, but unfortunately it seems to be. It’s been suggested on AA that Bowe could be muscled out if second-year sensation WR Johnny Baldwin takes off. And even fans who have written that Bowe should be extended have pushed lowball offers, like a 6 year, $50 million deal.
None of this will do in today’s NFL. Instead, I suggest we offer him a contract.
One he actually deserves.
Recent Receiver Deals
It’s not the easiest game to play, I’ll admit. Perhaps more than any other position, wide receiver is a really hard to gauge in terms of its worth to a football team. Over the past two offseasons, we’ve seen wide receivers earn contracts that rival quarterbacks and passrushers. Larry Fitzgerald broke the bank in Arizona with an 8-year deal worth $120 million, with $50 million guaranteed. And Calvin “Megatron” Johnson received the largest payday in NFL history this offseason, a seven year deal worth $134 million, with $60 million of it guaranteed.
At the same time, the Pittsburgh Steelers dangled ultra-speedster Mike Wallace this offseason for a first rounder. Mike Wallace is undoubtedly first-round talent, but he wanted a bank-busting deal that the Steelers are still reluctanct to fork over. No team in the NFL took the Steelers up on the 1st round deal, and the Steelers were clearly uncomfortable with settling for anything less. (Rumors are that the Chiefs dangled Bowe for a 1st rounder as well, also unsuccessfully.) But Brandon Marshall, a humongous, athletic possession receiver with a parade of character flags, was departed with for two third rounders in a desperate effort to get him out of Miami.
So that’s four currently great talents at WR, with their values set all over the board. Bowe is himself a great talent, with no character issues to speak of (any complaints about his character were minor, and were year ago), who will give you roughly equal production to Wallace but pretty well shy of what Fitz and Megatron can do.
Staying on that point, it should be obvious to everybody, Bowe included, that he is not going to get Fitz and Megatron’s contracts. Both players put up better numbers even when they were playing with the likes of John Skelton and Drew Stanton under center.
But while Bowe cannot give you their future-Hall-of-Fame ability, he can give you something just as indispensible. We’ll get to that in a moment.
The Value Of The Receiver In The Modern NFL
It’s a passing league in the 21st century — this is not new news. What has become new news over the past five or so years is that the run game can no longer set it up.
The run game, for decades, has been invaluable in setting up the passing attack. By assaulting the line of scrimmage, your opponent is forced to suck up to it in order to provide your outnumbered defensive line against an attacking offensive line — plus tight ends, fullbacks, anybody else who is helping push the defense back. You suck the defense in to somehow stop the run, and bam! You find the best one-on-one matchup over the defense’s top, and attack that weakness for profit.
The problem is that the football field hasn’t gotten any bigger, but the players have. NFL defenses are loaded with freak athletes who are stronger than they’ve ever been and faster than they’ve ever been. As a result, playing the run game is less of a chore for the modern, Herculean NFL defense. Unless you have an absolutely lethal ground game, an NFL defense doesn’t have to do much radically to adjust to it.
Rule changes in the passing game, however, designed to give quarterbacks cleaner pockets and receivers more freedom, have more than made up for this difference. Drew Brees, Tom Brady, and Aaron Rodgers all broke the single-season yardage record last year. Cam Newton set the rookie yardage record. Passing records fell like dominos the past few years.
Unlike the run game, defenses do have to radically adjust to the passing game, being pressured by freer quarterbacks to cover far more ground than they’ve had to before. By stretching the defense out and constantly threatening their secondaries, NFL back sevens have to fall back more and more rather than pressure the line of scrimmage. Keeping them on their heels opens up the attack on the ground. The pass, now, opens up the run game, not the other way around anymore.
Where Bowe Fits In All This
It should come as no surprise, then, that receivers have a worth that no non-QB position on the offense can match. Receivers are already given beaucoup advantages over their opponents in the secondary; the more talented and reliable a receiver is, the more havoc he creates on a defense, and the more he frees up the rest of his team.
There is almost no receiver more reliable in the past five years than Dwayne Bowe. Starting with his rookie year (not including the disasterous 2009 season where he missed 1/4 of the games), he has logged between 70 to 90 receptions with a nearly 14 YPC average. His speed and athleticism have long been underrated as fans focus on his strength. And the radius in which he can haul in a football seems to expand every year.
He runs every route on the tree. He goes over the middle. The first defender never brings him down. And he is an All World threat in the red zone. On top of all this, he has consistently been a positive influence in the locker room. Not a diva. Despite the fact he’s been playing at insane levels of skill for the past couple years, he has never held out on his dirt-cheap rookie contract.
Bowe is nearing the peak of his talents. And while it is clear that he is not a future Hall-of-Famer in the mold of Larry Fitzgerald, he is a reliable Pro Bowl talent year in and year out, with occasional All Pro upside. That ability to threaten defenses, and ability to be productive in an amazing variety of offenses with an amazing variety of quarterbacks, is indispensible. Dwayne Bowe must remain a Chief.
What A Fair Contract Looks Like
So I think Kansas City needs to lock him up well into his thirties. He deserves a 7-year deal, which is a nice, long deal that looks a lot like what the elite players at his position receive. The Chiefs can dump a ton of money on that 7th season on paper, to make the contract look much, much larger than it actually will be (a common practice in the NFL). Let’s say something like $15 million in that last year, giving the Chiefs the option to cut him before that 7th year if he wants (he’ll be 33 when that moment arrives).
As for his actual talent, I’d easily say the unique abilities he brings to this offense (especially when combined with Baldwin’s huge frame and glue-like hands on a cheap rookie contract for the next five years) are worth essentially what a pretty good QB contract is worth in this day and age, about $10 million a year.
What if Bowe wants more? What if he really is holding out for Megatron money? Well, even assuming Bowe was this deluded (and he’s not), we could easily entice him to play in 2012 for a first-year boost of $5 million, giving him a full $15 million that first year. The Chiefs have the cap space in 2012 — it’s not until 2013 when the situation starts tightening up financially, and Bowe’s contract will be back to $10 million/year at that point.
So that’s seven years, with $15 million on his first and last year of the contract, and his middle five years at $10 million a year. That’s a total of $80 million, and since the Megatron and Fitz deals guarantee a little over 40% of their contracts, that’d guarantee $34 million for Bowe.
That’s a retail deal for Bowe, and that tells the rest of the locker room exactly what they need to hear: abandon everything you knew before you entered this locker room, commit to the system, excel in the system, and you will be rewarded handsomely.
My final call: 7 years, 80 million, $34 million guaranteed.
Dwayne Bowe must remain a Kansas City Chief. This is the deal I would strike to make that happen.

I also think he deserves a loong term deal and would always be a great ambassador for the chiefs and the NFL.

Somewhere in between Steve Johnson and DeSean Jacksons contracts. Like Bowe, Jackson and Johnson have their cases of the drops. Often times they also disappear when theyre needed. Bowe is a very solid 1, but he certainly doesnt deserve a top 5 paid contract. I think Baldwin will be the one making a potential top 5 payday when his contract is up.

I don't feel comfortable giving him a 7 year deal at this point. But we have a problem if we don't. He's only 28 and at the top of his game. If they don't sign him they better trade his ass. I don't think I can handle seeing another key performer walk for nothing!

I think he will get a 5 year deal from pioli that is front loaded.

Bowe should get a 5 yr 50 to 60 mil dollar contract. I think Jackson got 5 for 51 not sure. But I think Bowe and the Chiefs would both be happy with that.

CBS' Jason La Canfora reports long-term talks between the Chiefs and unsigned franchise player Dwayne Bowe have "gone nowhere."
Per La Canfora, there "doesn't appear to be much impetus to securing a longer deal now." There haven't been any reports the sides were progressing toward a long-term deal since Bowe was franchised on March 5. He'll almost certainly play under his $9.515 million tender.

The writing is on the wall!

I don't think it means anything. He could still get a deal next year.

This is one time when I say it's smart not to pay the man long term

I believe I said it months ago.... Carr would not be back.... Bowe would be franchised for a year and then HE TOO would be leaving the Chiefs, and that Matt Cassell would have NO REAL competition as the starting QB..... CHECK, CHECK and CHECK. Guess my predictions don't sound quite so foolish when they ALL come true huh?

Carr is the only one of the 3 that was remotely surprising. he should have been signed b4 the end of last season. Piolis ego is the reason Cassel is still here and not Orton. Cassel can throw for 2100 yards 8 TDs and 27 INTs and Pioli will make sure he starts the following year. and there are a lot of WRs I'd take over Bowe so he shouldnt get what he wants.

The Carr one is the only one that is a surprise. But, they did sign a better CB for cheaper before Carr actually walked so its not all that bad...

Not many people are dumb enough to sign their #2 CB to a bigger contract than their #1 either.

RustShack wrote:

The Carr one is the only one that is a surprise. But, they did sign a better CB for cheaper before Carr actually walked so its not all that bad...

to say routt is better now isnt true. not saying routt cant become better but as of now it isnt close. and signing him last year when they could and should have would have been cheaper than what they paid flowers. I dont care too much about it because I dont think 2 #1s are needed when you have Flowers and Berry back there. Carr will prove to be a top end cb in Dallas. Overall it has been a good offseason. settling for routt to save money for next years players was smart after they didnt sign him in season. addressing the oline was smart. not paying Bowe was smart. the only real bad thing was passing on decastro and reaching for poe. but I'm okay with that because it looks like Pioli isnt going to be very good in the first rnd anyway so might as well get used to it.

OK I'm sorry. Routt two years ago in the same scheme we will run here was better than Carr was last year or any year here. But if your memory doesn't go that far back, then yes Carr was better last year as Routt was being misused.

If Carr could have been resigned to a smaller contract during the season then he would have been.

If Routt was so great then many teams would have been after him and he would have commanded a much higher contract. Dallas could have had Routt cheaper than Carr too.

Not every team runs the same schemes. Not every player fits all schemes. Players lose value after having down years every year. Just like players demand top dollar after having a great year then go to a different scheme and fail all the time.

looks like the stats I put on here were taken off. or maybe i didnt click. pulled up career stats on nfl.com and routt has never been close and has played 3 more years.

any1 listen to adam teischer on the radio today? he thinks it is very possible this goes well into the season with Bowe. as much as I agree with not giving him the long term deal it could kill us if he doesnt report til midseason

Chiefs09 wrote:

looks like the stats I put on here were taken off. or maybe i didnt click. pulled up career stats on nfl.com and routt has never been close and has played 3 more years.

Not sure what you're talking about with the stats. But the CB rankings two years ago had Routt at #2 just behind Revis. Having more "stats" may be due to being on a worse team.

Routt is a very underrated CB.