Going Deep
May 10th, 2011 | Author: Khaled Elsayed
There was a lot of talk up to, during and after the draft about the quarterbacks selected. Each man dissected as analysts tried to project who’ll be the next Peyton Manning, and who’ll be the next Ryan Leaf.
One of the things you hear often is about a player’s ability to throw the deep ball. Who has it in them to go long and find the vertical threat. It’s an essential skill in most offenses, but one that is rarely truly analyzed in terms of productivity.
So here goes.
We broke down every pass from the 2010 season, and dropped them into numerous categories and sub categories. One of these was passes thrown longer than 20 yards. Which brings us to the point of this article. A look at who threw downfield the most and who did it most efficiently. 30 deep attempts was the qualifying mark to be considered.
Asking A Lot
In numbers on their own (and this includes the playoffs) nobody threw downfield more often than Peyton Manning. His 95 throws of more than 20 yards trumped Joe Flacco and Aaron Rodgers (both with 86), while Matt Hasselbeck and Drew Brees (both 76) rounded out the top five. Most interesting is the fact that only one of these guys finished with a completion percentage of over 40% when going deep. We’ll get to that guy in a bit.
You might guess that those five would have accumulated more yardage than the rest while throwing downfield. Well, not quite. While Rodgers and Brees made it onto both lists as each topped the 1,000 yard mark for deep throws, and Hasselbeck also appeared again, they were joined in the yardage Top 5 by Philip Rivers and Michael Vick.
So what of Manning and Flacco? They threw downfield more than any other quarterbacks in the league, yet only finished sixth (Manning) and eighth (Flacco). Quite simply, their accuracy (or inaccuracy, rather) held them down.
Of all quarterbacks who attempted 30 or more deep passes (and there were 31 quarterbacks who did so), Manning and Flacco finished in the bottom ten in completion percentage. Still it could be worse for both of them. They could be Matt Cassel.
The limited Chief struggled big time on his deep balls, completing just 14 of 57 for the worst percentage in the league. That beat out players like Alex Smith (25%), Chad Henne (25%) and Jay Cutler (26.56%). That wasn’t Cutler’s biggest problem, though. Along with the former Charger duo, Brees and Rivers, Cutler threw the most deep ball interceptions with eight.
AFC South Going Deep
At least Brees and Rivers were completing a high percentage of their longer passes. Both men snuck into a surprising Top 5 with percentages over the 42% mark – just ahead of “throwing it deep connoisseur” Michael Vick (41.54%). Instead, Brees (No. 5) and Rivers (No. 4) shared the top with a guy soon to be discarded by his team, another guy who could see the exit shortly, and Matt Schaub. Nothing real creative to say about Schaub there.
Nope, the top three is an AFC South struggle for supremacy that looks down on the great Peyton Manning and his 30.53% completion percentage with disgust. At number three, the non-descript Schaub (43.75%) yields to David Garrard (No. 2 at 45.1%), and Vince Young.
Hang on a second, Vince Young? It’s what the numbers say – Young completed 16 of 35 balls he attempted of over 20 yards. A small sample size but for a team prepared to take on some baggage, it shows Young does in fact have something to offer.
Completion Percentage on Deep Throws
Rank Player Team Deep Attempts Deep Completions Deep Comp %
1 Vince Young TEN 35 16 45.71%
2 David Garrard JAX 51 23 45.10%
3 Matt Schaub HST 48 21 43.75%
4 Philip Rivers SD 68 29 42.65%
5 Drew Brees NO 76 32 42.11%
6 Michael Vick PHI 65 27 41.54%
7 Eli Manning NYG 73 30 41.10%
8 Kerry Collins TEN 44 18 40.91%
9 Derek Anderson ARZ 47 19 40.43%
10 Aaron Rodgers GB 86 33 38.37%
11 Kyle Orton DEN 73 27 36.99%
12 Tom Brady NE 49 18 36.73%
13 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 69 25 36.23%
14 Matt Hasselbeck SEA 76 26 34.21%
15 Donovan McNabb WAS 60 20 33.33%
16 Brett Favre MIN 46 15 32.61%
17 Sam Bradford SL 40 13 32.50%
18 Josh Freeman TB 72 23 31.94%
19 Shaun Hill DET 47 15 31.91%
20 Matt Ryan ATL 51 16 31.37%
21 Colt McCoy CLV 32 10 31.25%
22 Peyton Manning IND 95 29 30.53%
23 Joe Flacco BLT 86 26 30.23%
24 Carson Palmer CIN 54 16 29.63%
25 Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 69 20 28.99%
26 Mark Sanchez NYJ 74 21 28.38%
27 Jason Campbell OAK 51 14 27.45%
28 Jay Cutler CHI 64 17 26.56%
29 Chad Henne MIA 40 10 25.00%
30 Alex D. Smith SF 36 9 25.00%
31 Matt Cassel KC 57 14 24.56%
Moving swiftly on, we’ll next look into how reliant these quarterbacks are on the deep ball. So as a percentage of balls they threw, who went deep most often?
Vertical Titans
Once again it’s “Vertical” Vince Young topping the list with a massive 22.44% of all throws being aimed 20+ yards downfield. Again, you have to factor in the small sample size, but it should let you know a little something about the Tennessee Titans’ offense that Kerry Collins finished third, throwing 15.83% of his passes deep. Others in the top five include Michael Vick who was extremely impressive with his deep ball, and both Ryan Fitzpatrick and Joe Flacco who were less so.
Let’s focus on Fitzpatrick and Flacco briefly; both men had some issues. The above table shows both to be in the bottom ten when it comes to their long range accuracy, but yet their teams kept calling on them to heave it deep. With Buffalo you feel like they over compensated a tad too much for the start of the season with Trent Edwards. The man who moved onto the Jaguars only went deep on 4.95% of passes he attempted (for both clubs). Lower than anyone who dropped back from center at least 100 times.
The problem with Fitzpatrick is that he walked the fine line between being aggressive and being reckless, often ending up on the wrong side. If you’re completing that little a percentage of deep balls, then you really need to look at what else is on offer instead of forcing it and taking an incompletion.
The same can be said of Flacco who never really had that deep threat to take advantage of with the Ravens rarely using Donte Stallworth. Yet they continued going deep and the end result was just 30.23% of those balls being completed. Now Flacco did lead the league (along with Rivers and Brees) in deep touchdowns with twelve, but the Ravens’ barrage of long balls really put the spotlight on the problems with their deep passing attack.
One Man’s Cowardice Another Man’s Contemplation
At the other end of the scale, there are stories to be told about players for whom going deep was the smallest part of their repertoire. One that will frustrate Miami fans is that Chad Henne finished with the second lowest percentage of his passes thrown deep, just 8.15%. For a team that gives it’s quarterback as much time as Miami, this adds fuel to the fire suggesting Henne was a bit gun shy when it came to attacking vertically (perhaps with good reason, given only one in four of his deep balls end up as receptions). Still, Miami seems to have faith in him and opted not to target a rookie in this year’s draft.
Speaking of rookies (nice segue), if any of the teams who took one are thinking about playing them straight away, they could learn from the Rams. They only had Sam Bradford going deep on 6.78% of plays, keeping things simpler and safer for their franchise quarterback.
Other notable names at the bottom of the list include Ryan (8.5%), Schaub (8.36%) and Tom Brady (9.12%) who all went to work over shorter and intermediate distances, but in differing ways.
While Henne get’s criticism for his low percentage (on all fronts) you have to respect the work of the Texans, Falcons and Patriots in making the deep ball a smaller part of their offense. For Atlanta, they ran a ball control offense that worked on methodically moving the chains that got them the number one seed in the playoffs. New England didn’t need to attack vertically because they had players running free over the middle and a phenomenal decision-maker distributing the ball on their way to a 14-2 record. Houston found the offensive balance they were searching for, but their season was ultimately let down by their defense.
Deep Throw Percentage of Attempts
Rank Player Team Total Attempts Deep Attempts Deep Attempt %
1 Vince Young TEN 156 35 22.44%
2 Michael Vick PHI 408 65 15.93%
3 Kerry Collins TEN 278 44 15.83%
4 Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 441 69 15.65%
5 Joe Flacco BLT 553 86 15.55%
6 Jason Campbell OAK 329 51 15.50%
7 Josh Freeman TB 474 72 15.19%
8 Kyle Orton DEN 498 73 14.66%
9 Matt Hasselbeck SEA 525 76 14.48%
10 Colt McCoy CLV 222 32 14.41%
11 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 480 69 14.38%
12 Derek Anderson ARZ 327 47 14.37%
13 Aaron Rodgers GB 607 86 14.17%
14 David Garrard JAX 366 51 13.93%
15 Eli Manning NYG 539 73 13.54%
16 Jay Cutler CHI 474 64 13.50%
17 Peyton Manning IND 706 95 13.46%
18 Brett Favre MIN 358 46 12.85%
19 Donovan McNabb WAS 472 60 12.71%
20 Philip Rivers SD 541 68 12.57%
21 Mark Sanchez NYJ 596 74 12.42%
22 Matt Cassel KC 468 57 12.18%
23 Shaun Hill DET 416 47 11.30%
24 Drew Brees NO 718 76 10.58%
25 Alex D. Smith SF 342 36 10.53%
26 Carson Palmer CIN 585 54 9.23%
27 Tom Brady NE 537 49 9.12%
28 Matt Ryan ATL 600 51 8.50%
29 Matt Schaub HST 574 48 8.36%
30 Chad Henne MIA 491 40 8.15%
31 Sam Bradford SL 590 40 6.78%
The above shows that you can win in the NFL without attacking vertically all that much, but if you don’t have the right personnel throwing and catching, forcing it can hurt.
Take Colt McCoy for example. A revelation for the Browns in year one, he was also guilty of making some bad downfield decisions. An incredible 21.88% of his passes longer than 20 yards ended up as interceptions, far higher than Cutler (12.5%) who finished second, and Rivers, Garrard, and Jason Campbell who together finished third with 11.76%.
Meanwhile, Kyle Orton made the most of 2010’s break-out player, Brandon Lloyd. Only 2.74% of his long balls were intercepted, just besting Josh Freeman (2.78%) while Brett Favre finished a respectable third but will probably go away thinking he would have finished higher if he could have chucked a few to Sidney Rice.
Interceptions on Deep Throws
Rank Player Team Deep Attempts Deep INT Deep INT %
1 Colt McCoy CLV 32 7 21.88%
2 Jay Cutler CHI 64 8 12.50%
3 Jason Campbell OAK 51 6 11.76%
4 Philip Rivers SD 68 8 11.76%
5 David Garrard JAX 51 6 11.76%
6 Kerry Collins TEN 44 5 11.36%
7 Shaun Hill DET 47 5 10.64%
8 Drew Brees NO 76 8 10.53%
9 Donovan McNabb WAS 60 6 10.00%
10 Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 69 6 8.70%
11 Alex D. Smith SF 36 3 8.33%
12 Michael Vick PHI 65 5 7.69%
13 Sam Bradford SL 40 3 7.50%
14 Chad Henne MIA 40 3 7.50%
15 Peyton Manning IND 95 7 7.37%
16 Aaron Rodgers GB 86 6 6.98%
17 Eli Manning NYG 73 5 6.85%
18 Matt Hasselbeck SEA 76 5 6.58%
19 Derek Anderson ARZ 47 3 6.38%
20 Matt Schaub HST 48 3 6.25%
21 Tom Brady NE 49 3 6.12%
22 Matt Ryan ATL 51 3 5.88%
23 Joe Flacco BLT 86 5 5.81%
24 Vince Young TEN 35 2 5.71%
25 Carson Palmer CIN 54 3 5.56%
26 Mark Sanchez NYJ 74 4 5.41%
27 Matt Cassel KC 57 3 5.26%
28 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 69 3 4.35%
29 Brett Favre MIN 46 2 4.35%
30 Josh Freeman TB 72 2 2.78%
31 Kyle Orton DEN 73 2 2.74%
There you have it. A somewhat comprehensive look at the quarterbacks when they took aim downfield. It’s not a gospel indication of who the best are because of the numerous other factors that statistics can’t delve into. Namely, bits likes the type of throw, conditions, type of player throwing to and against, and variables such as tipped passes resulting in completions or interceptions. For that, I’d suggest purchasing a premium membership to see our deep ball grades … but then, of course I would.
For now, I’ll leave you safe in the knowledge that Vince Young is more accurate (in one area) than you thought possible, while even Peyton Manning has his struggles at times.
Sometimes you have to admire the audacity of numbers.
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